纽约联储主席威廉姆斯：美联储或将很快需要启动扩表 应对流动性需求

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is approaching a new phase of "liquidity replenishment" after two years of balance sheet reduction, with potential plans to expand its securities holdings soon [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Federal Reserve may initiate "reserve management" bond purchases to maintain bank reserves at "adequate levels," which does not indicate a fundamental change in monetary policy stance [2]. - The next step in the Fed's balance sheet strategy involves assessing whether reserve levels have transitioned from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" [2]. - The bond purchases are part of a planned liquidity management action under the Fed's "adequate reserves framework," not a new stimulus policy [2]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Recent fluctuations in the repo market indicate a transition of liquidity from "ample" to "adequate," with some repo rates exceeding the Fed's target range [3]. - The usage of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) has significantly increased, reaching the highest frequency since its establishment in 2021, with borrowing exceeding $10 billion on two occasions last week [3]. - The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is approaching the upper limit of the Fed's target range, signaling tightening market liquidity [3]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market data suggests that financial institutions have been increasingly utilizing repo facilities since October, with some analysts predicting that the Fed may officially start "reserve management" bond purchases in the first quarter of 2026 [4]. - The Fed is closely monitoring indicators such as the federal funds market, repo market, and payment systems to assess changes in reserve demand [4]. - The implementation of reserve management bond purchases is viewed as a natural step in executing the adequate reserves strategy, aimed at maintaining smooth market operations rather than stimulating economic growth [4].