2026年有色金属展望：货币与需求共振期望牛市

Group 1: Outlook for Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to experience a bullish market by 2026, driven by monetary policy, demand growth, and supply changes [1] - The Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts, and the trend of de-dollarization will increase global liquidity demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly physical assets [1] - Demand for non-ferrous metals will accelerate due to adjustments in U.S. tariff policies and the reshaping of global supply chains, especially in emerging industries like AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1] Group 2: Supply Challenges - The industry faces significant supply challenges due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, leading to low supply elasticity [1] - Resource-rich countries are tightening control over key minerals, increasing supply uncertainty and presenting multiple challenges for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The resonance of interest rate cuts and de-dollarization is expected to drive gold prices higher, with silver benefiting from rising gold prices and the restoration of the gold-silver ratio [2] - Basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are anticipated to perform well in 2026 due to the rise of emerging demands in AI, electricity, new energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing [2] Group 4: Strategic Metals and Market Dynamics - The supply-demand dynamics for strategic metals such as cobalt, natural uranium, tungsten, rare earths, and antimony are changing, with prices expected to rise overall, forming a bullish market [2] - The overall price increase in non-ferrous metals will enhance the allocation value of non-ferrous mining companies, prompting investors to focus on leading companies with strong resource expansion capabilities and potential for mergers and acquisitions [2] Group 5: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices are expected to remain in an upward trend through 2026, supported by a slowing U.S. economy and potential stagflation risks [2] - Central banks and financial institutions are likely to increase their allocation to physical gold, further boosting the gold market [3] - The net inflow of global gold ETFs reached 397 tons in the first half of 2025, the highest since 2020, indicating strong investor interest in gold assets [3] Group 6: Base Metals and New Energy Metals - Copper supply shortages are becoming clearer, with expectations for copper prices to enter a bull market by 2026 [3] - The demand for aluminum is expected to improve despite some policy impacts, with a growing supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum [3] - Cobalt's supply-demand tension is likely to push its price upward, while lithium market supply disruptions are gradually easing, which may affect lithium price trends [3]