RDW Q3 Deep Dive: Government Delays Pressure Revenue and Guidance Amid Ongoing Transformation

Core Insights - Redwire (NYSE:RDW) reported Q3 CY2025 revenue of $103.4 million, a 50.7% increase year-on-year, but fell short of Wall Street's expectations by 21.9% [1][3][6] - The company experienced a GAAP loss of $0.29 per share, which was 93.3% below analysts' consensus estimates [1][6] - Full-year revenue guidance was revised down to $330 million at the midpoint, a significant decrease from previous estimates [1][6] Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue of $103.4 million compared to analyst estimates of $132 million, resulting in a 21.7% miss [6] - Year-on-year growth of 50.7% was noted, but the overall performance did not meet market expectations [1][6] - Adjusted EBITDA was reported at -$2.57 million, significantly missing the analyst estimates of $8.33 million [6] Management Commentary - Management attributed revenue shortfall to delays in U.S. government contract awards, particularly affecting defense and reconnaissance programs [3][5] - CEO Peter Cannito described the situation as a "temporary near-term timing issue," citing strong customer demand but slower contracting activity due to the government shutdown [3][4] - The integration of Edge Autonomy was highlighted as a key contributor to revenue growth and operational transformation [5] Future Outlook - Management's revised guidance suggests that delayed government contracts are expected to be pushed into next year rather than lost [4] - The company is positioning for a "strong 2026" once government operations normalize, especially in UAS and space infrastructure segments [4] - Incoming CFO Chris Edmunds emphasized ongoing cost reduction initiatives and operational efficiencies aimed at improving profitability [4] Financial Metrics - Operating margin was reported at -28.9%, a decline from -10.8% in the same quarter last year [6] - Backlog at the end of the quarter stood at $355.6 million [6] - Market capitalization was noted at $987.6 million [6]