下周美国市场也不好过？美债发行潮来袭 流动性“雪上加霜”

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of U.S. Treasury bond issuance is set to impact the market next week, coinciding with a recent decline in tech giants' market value and concerns over high valuations and economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Upcoming Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in various maturities next week, including $58 billion in 3-year bonds, $42 billion in 10-year bonds, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [2]. - This issuance is aimed at refinancing maturing debt and raising approximately $26.8 billion in new funds from private investors [2]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Concerns - The upcoming bond issuance will occur in a compressed trading week due to the Veterans Day holiday, raising concerns about market liquidity [2]. - Key liquidity indicators in the U.S. financial system have shown signs of distress, with the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) recently spiking by 22 basis points, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 3: Causes of Liquidity Tightening - The root cause of the liquidity strain is attributed to a significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which has surged from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion since July due to cash withdrawals from the market [4][6]. - This liquidity withdrawal has led to a decrease in bank reserves to the lowest level since early 2021, with foreign banks' cash assets dropping by over $300 billion in four months [6]. Group 4: Potential Risks - Experts have warned that the deterioration of funding conditions could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle, potentially triggering a crisis similar to the 2019 repo market turmoil if key indicators continue to worsen [8].