Core Insights - Starbucks has formed a strategic partnership with Boyu Capital to jointly operate its retail business in China, highlighting the competitive pressure from local brands like Luckin and Manner in the coffee market [1] - The coffee futures market has seen significant price increases, with prices reaching historical highs, impacting both coffee producers and retailers [2][3] Coffee Market Dynamics - Coffee futures prices have surged, with a notable increase from 188.5 cents per pound at the beginning of last year to a peak of 437.95 cents per pound in October, reflecting a rise of over 70% [2] - The USDA projects a decline in global Arabica coffee production, estimating a drop of 475,000 tons (-7.5%) from the historical peak of 6.3 million tons in the 2018/2019 season [3] - Weather events in major coffee-producing countries, particularly Brazil, have contributed to reduced production and increased futures prices [3] Impact on Coffee Farmers - Farmers like Cai Qing have experienced significant income growth due to rising coffee prices and partnerships with large companies like Starbucks, with annual sales reaching approximately 800,000 yuan [5] - The price of fresh coffee cherries in Yunnan has increased from 3.5-4.3 yuan to around 7 yuan per kilogram, driven by high futures prices [7] - The area under coffee cultivation in Yunnan is projected to grow by 4% in 2024, reversing a previous decline due to low prices [7] Retail Sector Challenges - The intense competition in the coffee market has led to aggressive pricing strategies, with some brands offering coffee for as low as 9 yuan, complicating pricing strategies for established brands [8][9] - Retailers are forced to cut costs by reducing staff and store sizes, as rising raw material costs from coffee futures do not allow for price increases [10] - The ongoing price war and the need to attract customers with lower prices are straining the operational capabilities of coffee retailers [10]
咖啡豆涨价创历史新高：咖农欢呼 咖啡店苦撑降成本
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-11-08 11:57