非农“冇了”，下周的美国CPI也要“冇了”，美联储12月还能“闭眼降息”吗？

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The October CPI report, originally scheduled for release next week, is now in jeopardy, with the Labor Statistics Bureau potentially abandoning its publication altogether [1][2] - The absence of official inflation and employment data will prolong and complicate the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December [1][2] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on data for decision-making [2] - The lack of recent employment reports and key inflation data is undermining the foundation of policy-making [2] - The absence of official data may strengthen the position of FOMC members concerned about the risk of inflation accelerating again, potentially leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [2] Alternative Indicators - During this period of missing official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the year-on-year increase in October CPI may be similar to the lower-than-expected 3% in September [5] - However, these alternative indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, and the absence of timely data increases decision-making costs [5] Future Scenarios and Implications - The Federal Reserve's final decision in December will heavily depend on when the government shutdown ends and how quickly economic data can catch up [6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, including the release of outdated employment reports [6][7] - If the government reopens by the end of November, the market may see the September employment report before the December meeting, but it may not be sufficient to convince the Fed to pause rate cuts [6] - If both September and October employment reports are released, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, a pause in rate cuts becomes a possible option [7] - In an ideal scenario where three complete employment reports are available, the decision will hinge on the unemployment rate, with specific thresholds influencing the Fed's actions [7]