MP Materials Stock Jumps After Earnings. Why the Market ‘Has It Wrong’ on Rare Earths.

Core Viewpoint - MP Materials, the largest rare-earth miner in the Western Hemisphere, reported a smaller-than-expected loss for the third quarter and anticipates profitability in the fourth quarter, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a third-quarter loss that was smaller than analysts had expected, and it is projected to be profitable in the fourth quarter [3][5]. - Realized pricing for neodymium praseodymium oxide increased to $59 per kilogram from $48 a year ago, with expectations for future prices to exceed $100 per kilogram [4][5]. Operational Updates - MP Materials is set to begin the commissioning process for its new heavy rare-earth separation facility at the Mountain Pass mine in mid-2026 [3][5]. - The company has established a relationship with Apple, which included a $40 million prepayment [3]. Market Context - Rare-earth stocks have experienced a decline of approximately 37% from their October highs due to geopolitical tensions and threats from China regarding rare-earth exports [7]. - China currently dominates the rare-earth materials market, holding an estimated 85% of global processing capacity, prompting the U.S. government to push for increased domestic production [8]. Analyst Insights - Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas raised the price target for MP Materials stock by $2 to $79 following the quarterly report, maintaining a Buy rating [4]. - Gianarikas expressed that the market has misjudged the situation, asserting that the U.S. is on a path to independence in critical materials, despite recent volatility in rare-earth stock prices [10].