水贝市场暂时处于“半停滞状态” 黄金新政背后的产业链变局

Core Insights - The newly implemented gold tax policy is increasing tax costs for downstream enterprises in the gold jewelry industry, leading to a temporary squeeze on profit margins [2][3][4] - The industry is expected to see a shift towards more centralized trading in exchanges, promoting transparency and standardization [3][10] Tax Policy Impact - The new tax policy, effective from November 1, 2025, classifies gold transactions into "investment" and "non-investment" categories, with increased tax burdens for non-investment uses [3][4] - Non-investment gold enterprises will see a reduction in input tax deductions from 13% to 6%, effectively increasing their gold procurement costs by approximately 7% [4][6] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new tax policy, many businesses in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market are adopting a wait-and-see approach, leading to a noticeable decline in trading activity [2][6] - Retail prices for gold jewelry have increased, with reports of price hikes of 60 to 70 yuan per gram, as businesses pass on the cost pressures to consumers [8][9] Industry Restructuring - The new tax regulations are expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the gold industry, potentially leading to a consolidation of smaller players as they struggle to compete with larger brands [9][10] - Analysts predict that the tax changes will drive a shift from gray market transactions to more regulated exchange-based trading, enhancing market transparency [5][10] Long-term Outlook - The tax policy is anticipated to favor exchange members and larger enterprises, as they can better absorb the tax implications and maintain competitive pricing [9][12] - The overall market is expected to see a reduction in gray market activities, with a long-term benefit for established players in the gold trading sector [9][10]