Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-11-09 07:34Core Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for electrolytes, has surged to 119,800 yuan/ton as of November 7, marking a 114.31% increase from 55,900 yuan/ton on September 15 [1] - This price increase has led to a rapid rebound in the stock prices of companies in the electrolyte sector, with firms like Tianqi Materials and Huasheng Lithium achieving over 100% gains this year [1] - A significant revaluation of the industry chain is underway due to a reversal in supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Trends - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has experienced dramatic fluctuations, rising from nearly 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022 to a low of 54,000 yuan/ton in early 2024, reflecting a decline of over 90% [3] - The market began to shift in the second half of this year, with prices breaking out of a stagnant phase and increasing by 33.14% in just ten days after mid-September [5] Supply Dynamics - The supply side has seen a significant reduction in effective supply due to the exit of many small manufacturers and cautious capacity expansion from leading firms [7] - As of October 10, lithium hexafluorophosphate inventory was only 1,500 tons, indicating a low inventory status [7] - Production in October is expected to decrease to 20,100 tons, a 3.4% decline from September, despite high production rates among most companies [7] Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is being driven by strong growth in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, with the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China expected to exceed 35% by the third quarter of 2025 [9] - The energy storage market has seen explosive growth, with global lithium battery storage installations exceeding 170 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a 68% year-on-year increase [9] - Domestic energy storage project bidding has surged, with a 97.7% increase in new bids from January to September this year [9] Company Performance - Tianqi Materials has signed procurement contracts with battery companies for a total supply of 159,500 tons, amounting to nearly 40 billion yuan, which is more than three times its projected revenue for 2024 [11][12] - The profitability of leading companies in the lithium hexafluorophosphate sector has improved significantly, with profits per ton rising to 47,372.57 yuan, a 48.36% increase week-on-week [19] - Companies like Duofluor and Tianqi Materials are expected to see substantial profit increases, with projections indicating a potential net profit of 12 billion yuan for Duofluor in 2026 if prices remain stable [19] Market Structure - The market for lithium hexafluorophosphate is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding over 70% of the market share [16] - Tianqi Materials, which produces its own lithium hexafluorophosphate, has a cost advantage of 15% over competitors, allowing it to maintain a strong position in the market [22] - The current price increase may lead to significant changes in the competitive landscape of the electrolyte market, with some second-tier companies struggling to maintain profitability [23] Future Outlook - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to remain tight, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton through the first half of 2026 [24] - The supply of new capacity is unlikely to be released on a large scale before mid-2026, while demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 50% [24]