懂王胜选一周年 “川普2.0”与“1.0”市场走势高度相似 坏消息是第二年美股走势通常最差

Core Viewpoint - The market performance in the first year of Trump's second term closely mirrors that of his first term, with significant increases in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, and emerging markets outperforming the U.S. market, while the dollar weakened [1][4]. Market Performance - The past 12 months have shown similarities to 2017, with Bitcoin being the best-performing asset in both periods [4]. - Stocks have outperformed bonds during this time [5]. - Emerging markets, particularly China and Japan, have outperformed U.S. stocks, while European markets lagged [6]. - The dollar has declined in both periods [7]. Notable Differences - Gold prices have surged significantly this time, contrasting with the muted response during Trump's first term, while oil prices have dropped, reversing the trend of being one of the best-performing assets in 2016-2017 [8]. - There is a notable sector divergence this time, with technology stocks leading in the U.S., while materials, real estate, and energy sectors have declined. In Europe, financial and utility sectors performed well, but healthcare, real estate, and materials saw declines [8]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that the second year of a presidential term is typically the worst for U.S. stocks, with the average and median returns for the S&P 500 being the lowest [13]. - The experience from Trump's first term supports this pattern, as assets that performed well in the first year, such as Bitcoin and emerging markets, saw declines in the second year, accompanied by increased market volatility [16].