Bitcoin Survives the $100,000 Crash Test — What’s Next for the Market?

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent dip below $100,000 tested investor confidence, but it quickly rebounded, establishing a new psychological support level [1] - Analysts generally maintain a bullish outlook for Bitcoin despite short-term volatility, with the US government shutdown seen as a significant price constraint [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - PlanB views the recent correction as a mid-cycle pause, noting that Bitcoin has remained above $100,000 for six consecutive months, indicating a shift from resistance to support [2] - PlanB anticipates that the next major price movement could target the range of $250,000 to $500,000, contingent on Bitcoin's divergence from its realized price [4] Group 2: Liquidity Dynamics - Arthur Hayes links Bitcoin's short-term weakness to tightening US dollar liquidity, attributing this to the increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) since the US debt ceiling was raised [5] - Hayes predicts that once the US government reopens and reduces its TGA balance, it will initiate a "stealth QE," indirectly injecting liquidity into the market [5] - Raoul Pal's liquidity model supports this view, indicating that the current phase is a "Window of Pain," but he expects a sharp reversal in liquidity conditions soon [6]