政府关门冲击美联储的政策平衡选向

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 39 days, marking one of the longest shutdowns in history, due to Congress's failure to pass the fiscal year 2026 spending bill [1] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that such shutdowns could lead to a GDP loss of 0.1% to 0.5% annually, amplifying economic uncertainty [3] - Approximately 800,000 federal employees have been forced to take unpaid leave or work without pay, affecting key departments like the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security [3] Labor Market Dynamics - The Challenger report indicates a significant surge in layoffs, with 153,074 job cuts announced in October, a 183% increase from September and the highest monthly figure since October 2003 [5][6] - The ADP report shows a surprising rebound in private sector employment, with a net increase of 42,000 jobs in October, reversing previous losses [7][8] - The labor market is exhibiting a "two-speed" dynamic, with blue-collar sectors holding up while white-collar jobs, particularly in technology and services, face pressure [8] Federal Reserve's Policy Challenges - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximizing employment and price stability is under severe strain, with current inflation around 3.0%, significantly above the 2% target [2][9] - The ongoing government shutdown complicates data collection, leading to a "data black hole" that increases policy-making difficulties for the Fed [4][10] - Internal divisions within the Fed are evident, with some members prioritizing employment while others focus on inflation risks, reflecting a classic policy dilemma [10][13] Market Expectations and Future Outlook - As of November 6, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the December meeting is approximately 58.3%, down from 63.8% a week prior, indicating market uncertainty [12] - The potential for a prolonged government shutdown could lead to a significant drop in consumer spending, further impacting employment [12][13] - The Fed may need to adopt a cautious approach in its December meeting, balancing the risks of rising inflation against the need to support employment [11][13]