Core Viewpoint - Emerging market equity assets are expected to present significant opportunities due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a shift in global liquidity expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Emerging Markets and Equity Assets - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to enhance dollar liquidity, benefiting emerging markets directly [1]. - Historical data indicates that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of dollar weakness [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned for a rebound due to its historical mid-level valuations and sensitivity to foreign capital flows [1]. - The A-share market is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing internal competition and the expectations surrounding the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1]. - Net inflows from southbound capital exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, marking a historical record and indicating a clear trend of foreign capital increasing allocations to Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Gold and Commodities - The gold market is currently facing technical correction pressures, particularly after prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce, but the long-term upward trend remains solid [2]. - Factors supporting gold's long-term growth include the onset of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to lower real interest rates, ongoing global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical factors [2]. - Supply constraints and a bottoming global inventory cycle are expected to benefit commodities such as copper, aluminum, and rare earths, which have strong investment value [2]. Group 3: Technology Growth and Investment Strategy - The resurgence of AI capital expenditure is driving upward revisions in earnings for U.S. tech stocks, while A-share sectors like AI computing power, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals resonate with global industry trends [2]. - Historically, technology growth assets tend to lead during interest rate cut cycles, and policy support is expected to enhance the performance of these sectors [2]. - A balanced and slightly aggressive investment strategy is recommended, focusing on three main lines: technology growth and high-end manufacturing, resource commodities, and defensive layouts [3]. - The first line emphasizes technology growth and high-end manufacturing, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and robotics [3]. - The second line focuses on resource commodities, highlighting gold and base metals as strategic investment options during the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [3]. - The third line suggests defensive investments in high-dividend assets like utilities and dividend stocks, as well as positioning in consumer sectors awaiting policy catalysts [3].
路博迈基金朱冰倩:新兴市场权益资产迎来显著机会
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-09 15:26