从单车净赚10万元到断崖式下跌！出口俄罗斯“退烧”，中国车商做了个大胆的决定

Core Viewpoint - The export of Chinese automobiles to the Russian market is facing significant challenges, with a notable decline in sales and increasing operational costs due to new taxes and changing market dynamics [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first nine months of 2025, China's automobile exports to Russia fell to 357,700 units, a decrease of 58% year-on-year, marking a significant shift in export destinations, with Mexico and the UAE surpassing Russia [4][10]. - Previously, Russia was the largest export market for Chinese automobiles, but it has now dropped to third place, reflecting a major change in the export landscape [4][10]. - The demand for Chinese electric vehicles in Russia has decreased, with many customers now hesitant to purchase due to rising costs and uncertainty about future taxes [2][5]. Group 2: Tax and Regulatory Impact - Starting October 1, 2024, the scrap tax for new imported vehicles in Russia will increase by 70% to 85%, significantly impacting the cost structure for Chinese exporters [8]. - The scrap tax for used cars with engine displacements of 2-3 liters and over three years old will rise from 1.3 million rubles (approximately 114,000 RMB) to 2.37 million rubles (approximately 208,000 RMB), an increase of nearly 83% [8]. - Additionally, from January 1, 2025, the import tariff for automobiles will be adjusted to 20% to 38%, further increasing the cost of doing business in Russia [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The Russian automotive market is experiencing a structural decline, with inflation at 10% and high interest rates on car loans, which are suppressing demand [10]. - Chinese brands still hold a significant presence in the Russian market, occupying six out of the top ten spots in sales, but overall sales are declining [10]. - Major Chinese automakers, such as Chery, are beginning to scale back their operations in Russia, indicating a shift in strategy as they reassess the market [10][15]. Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Chinese automotive companies are shifting from a short-term profit focus to a long-term commitment in the Russian market, emphasizing the need for local production and service networks [19][20]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance localization efforts, improve product development for extreme weather conditions, and build robust after-sales service systems to better serve Russian consumers [20]. - The transition from a "quick profit" mindset to establishing a sustainable presence in Russia is seen as crucial for future success [15][19].