德邦基金雷涛： 半导体成长非“45度直线” 未来两年是关键窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in the A-share market is experiencing significant growth driven by "AI innovation" and "domestic substitution," with industry indices rising over 40% this year [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The CSI Semiconductor Index increased by 50.51% in Q3, outperforming the overall market due to expanding industry demand and domestic substitution [2] - The Debon Semiconductor Industry Mixed Fund managed by Lei Tao achieved a year-to-date return of 84% and over 129% in the last three years, significantly exceeding the benchmark returns of 35.28% and 59.90% respectively [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Lei Tao emphasizes two key points for selecting quality stocks in the semiconductor sector: detailed research on industry sub-segments and assessment of market conditions [2] - The investment strategy involves a systematic "three-layer screening method" focusing on high-growth sectors, identifying resilient companies, and evaluating current market valuations [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is at a critical juncture driven by domestic substitution and the global AI technology revolution, with the next two years seen as a key development window [4] - The industry is currently in an upward cycle, benefiting from AI demand, with significant growth potential in advanced processes and AI computing-related chip design [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The current development of AI is still in its early stages, primarily focused on cloud and IT infrastructure, with further penetration into consumer devices expected to create new applications [5] - Lei Tao expresses confidence in the resilience of semiconductor companies' earnings over the next 1-2 years, driven by the industry's growth trajectory [5] Group 5: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to maintain patience and rationality regarding short-term market fluctuations, as the semiconductor industry's growth path is complex and influenced by multiple variables [6] - The phenomenon of "capital clustering" in the semiconductor sector reflects the fundamental strengths and strategic importance of certain companies, which are favored by long-term investors [6]