德邦基金雷涛： 半导体成长非“45度直线”未来两年是关键窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in the A-share market is experiencing significant growth driven by "AI innovation" and "domestic substitution," with industry indices rising over 40% this year [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - The CSI Semiconductor Index increased by 50.51% in Q3, outperforming the overall market due to expanding industry demand and domestic substitution [2] - The Debon Semiconductor Industry Mixed Fund, managed by Lei Tao, achieved a year-to-date return of 84% and over 129% in the last three years, significantly exceeding the performance benchmarks [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Lei Tao emphasizes two key points for selecting quality stocks in the semiconductor sector: detailed research on industry sub-segments and assessment of market conditions [2][3] - The investment selection framework involves identifying high-growth sectors, selecting resilient companies, and evaluating current market valuations to ensure safety margins [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Chinese semiconductor industry is at a pivotal point, driven by domestic substitution and the global AI technology revolution, with the next two years seen as critical for development [5][6] - AI is expected to reshape the industry landscape, with significant demand growth anticipated as AI applications extend to various sectors, including mobile, automotive, and IoT devices [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Lei Tao expresses confidence in semiconductor asset allocation, noting that industry growth is not linear and is influenced by multiple factors such as technological breakthroughs and production adjustments [7] - The phenomenon of "funds clustering" in the semiconductor sector reflects the underlying fundamentals, strategic positions, and scarcity of certain companies, which attract long-term investment [7]