政府停摆影响经济前景，美消费信心与就业市场双双告急

Core Insights - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has sharply declined due to government shutdowns and high prices, reaching its lowest level since June 2022, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 50.3 in early November from 53.6 in October and 71.8 a year ago [1] - Concerns over the prolonged government impasse are overshadowing positive market sentiments from record-high stock prices, leading consumers to worry about the potential negative impacts on the economy [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates that the ongoing government shutdown could reduce the annualized GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4 2023, affecting millions of low-income families and federal employees [1] Employment Market Outlook - Public perception of the job market is deteriorating, with unemployment expectations rising for the third consecutive month, indicating a 43% chance of job loss within the next year [2] - In October, U.S. companies announced over 153,000 layoffs, a 175% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level of layoffs for this period in over 20 years [2] - The total number of layoffs in the first ten months of the year surpassed one million, reflecting a 65% year-on-year increase, driven by factors such as AI adoption, weak consumer and business spending, and rising costs [2]