专访北京大学光华管理学院院长刘俏： “十五五”规划建议核心路径明晰全要素生产率提升成经济增长关键引擎

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range to achieve the goal of doubling GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels [3][4] - The plan outlines seven key objectives, with a focus on high-quality development and the continuous improvement of total factor productivity (TFP) as a critical driver for sustainable growth [2][4] Economic Growth and Objectives - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposes seven goals, prioritizing "significant achievements in high-quality development," which includes maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range and improving the total factor productivity [2][4] - The reasonable growth range is crucial for meeting the 2035 modernization targets, with a projected annual growth rate necessary to ensure GDP doubles by 2035 [3][4] Total Factor Productivity - Total factor productivity is identified as a structural engine for economic growth, moving away from traditional scale expansion towards productivity enhancement [4][5] - The emphasis on TFP in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is significantly higher than in the previous plan, indicating its critical role in addressing current economic challenges [4][5] New Quality Productivity - The development of new quality productivity is a strategic task in the "15th Five-Year Plan," requiring substantial investment and a robust manufacturing base [5][6] - Maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is essential for enhancing TFP, with China's manufacturing sector currently accounting for about 26% of the economy [5][6] Industry Upgrading and Innovation - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is highlighted as necessary for future industrial upgrades, addressing issues such as insufficient basic research funding and talent shortages [7][8] - The plan calls for collaborative efforts across policy, technology, and finance to enhance the synergy between technological innovation and industry [7][8]