半导体成长非“45度直线” 未来两年是关键窗口期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is experiencing significant growth driven by "AI innovation" and "domestic substitution," with industry indices rising over 40% this year [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The CSI Semiconductor Index increased by 50.51% in Q3, outperforming the overall market due to expanding industry demand and domestic substitution [2]. - The Debon Semiconductor Industry Mixed Fund, managed by Lei Tao, achieved an annual return of 84% and over 129% in the last three years, significantly exceeding the performance benchmarks [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Lei Tao emphasizes a "three-layer screening method" for stock selection, focusing on high-growth sectors, identifying quality companies that can withstand cycles, and assessing current market valuations [3][4]. - The strategy involves detailed research on various segments of the semiconductor industry, including materials, equipment, EDA, packaging, and chip design, to identify 2 to 3 promising areas for investment [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The next two years are seen as a critical window for the semiconductor industry, with significant opportunities arising from AI demand and the deepening of domestic substitution [5][6]. - The AI wave is expected to reshape the industry landscape, with many semiconductor companies, especially leading firms, showing strong performance due to the upward cycle and additional demand from AI technologies [6][7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor industry's growth path is characterized by multiple variables, including technological breakthroughs and capacity adjustments, rather than a smooth upward trajectory [7]. - The phenomenon of "funds clustering" in the semiconductor sector reflects the fundamental strengths and strategic importance of certain companies, which are favored by investors for their scarcity and potential for outstanding performance [7].