专访北京大学光华管理学院院长刘俏： “十五五”规划建议核心路径明晰 全要素生产率提升成经济增长关键引擎

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes seven key goals, with a focus on maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range and improving total factor productivity [2][4] - The plan aims for China to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035, with stable economic growth as a core requirement [4] Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity - The plan outlines that economic growth must remain within a reasonable range to meet the GDP doubling target by 2035 [4] - Total factor productivity is identified as a crucial driver for sustainable economic growth, moving away from traditional scale expansion [5][6] - The emphasis on total factor productivity in the "15th Five-Year Plan" is significantly higher than in the previous plan, indicating its importance in addressing current economic challenges [6] Manufacturing and New Quality Productivity - The development of new quality productivity, marked by significant improvements in total factor productivity, is a strategic task in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [7] - Maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing is essential for supporting high-quality development and total factor productivity [8] - The manufacturing sector's share in China is approximately 26%, which is crucial for enhancing total factor productivity despite facing challenges like overcapacity [8] Technology and Industry Innovation - The integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation is highlighted as necessary for future industrial upgrades [9] - The plan addresses issues such as insufficient basic research funding and a shortage of talent in the technology sector [9][10] - Recommendations include active fiscal policies to support basic research and encourage enterprises to invest in technology [10]