美联储重磅来袭！美联储官员以及美财长贝森特本周将密集发声

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing uncertainty in its decision-making due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has led to a lack of official labor market data and other key economic indicators [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 66.5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 33.5% [1] - By January, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 53%, with a 19.8% chance of no change and a 27.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut [1] - Federal Reserve officials, including key regional bank presidents, are scheduled to speak this week, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Government Shutdown Impact - The current government shutdown has lasted 40 days, marking the longest federal shutdown in U.S. history, and is causing economic concerns, including rising inflation [2] - The shutdown has resulted in the U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau failing to release the October non-farm payroll report, leading to a "blind flying" situation for the Federal Reserve regarding its December rate decision [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Besant warned that the slowdown in cargo transportation could lead to shortages in supply chains and during the holiday season due to the ongoing shutdown [2] Group 3: Legislative Developments - Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicated that a potential agreement to end the government shutdown is gradually being reached, although it is not guaranteed [2] - The Senate held its first weekend meeting since the shutdown began to discuss funding bills, with ongoing debates over healthcare policy complicating negotiations [2]