中金：明年黄金有望延续涨势

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that gold is expected to continue its upward trend next year, with structural and cyclical opportunities likely to resonate together [1] Group 1: Economic and Market Factors - The trend of de-globalization and strategic security demands may continue to support the long-term increase in gold reserves by central banks in emerging markets [1] - Changes expected by 2025 will raise the requirements for physical gold inventory construction in regional markets, which may already be reflected in the tightening liquidity of the gold market observed this year [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - Economic growth pressures in the U.S. may persist into the first half of next year, with the Federal Reserve having restarted interest rate cuts in September and potentially ending balance sheet reduction by year-end [1] - The ongoing liquidity easing cycle is expected to provide support for investment demand in gold ETFs and other assets, although a shift towards recovery trading may require some time [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - The geopolitical risks associated with the ongoing restructuring of order may not completely dissipate, further supporting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]