Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-11-10 00:41Core Viewpoint - The export of Chinese automobiles to Russia has significantly declined, with a 58% drop in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year, as new taxes and changing market dynamics impact the industry [3][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the first nine months of 2023, China exported 5.71 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with Mexico becoming the largest export destination, followed by the UAE and Russia [1][3]. - Russia, which was previously the largest market for Chinese automobile exports, has now fallen to third place, with exports dropping to 357,700 units in 2025 [3][7]. - The shift in export destinations indicates a significant change in the landscape of Chinese automobile exports, moving away from reliance on the Russian market [3][7]. Group 2: Tax and Regulatory Impact - Starting October 1, 2024, the scrap tax for new imported vehicles in Russia will increase by 70% to 85%, particularly affecting used cars with engine sizes between 2 to 3 liters and over three years old, where the tax will rise from 1.3 million rubles (approximately 114,000 RMB) to 2.37 million rubles (approximately 208,000 RMB) [5][7]. - Additionally, from January 1, 2025, import tariffs on vehicles will be adjusted to 20% to 38%, leading to increased clearance costs for Chinese automobiles [5][7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The Russian economy is experiencing structural decline, with high inflation rates of 10% and a long-term benchmark interest rate of 21%, leading to increased car loan rates and reduced purchasing power [7][10]. - Chinese brands are facing declining sales in Russia, with significant drops reported for brands like Haval and Geely, which saw year-on-year declines of 15.5% and 39.3%, respectively [7][10]. - The closure of 274 car dealerships in Russia, with 78% being Chinese brands, highlights the challenges faced by Chinese automobile exporters in maintaining market presence [7][10]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Chinese automobile manufacturers are shifting from a focus on quick profits to establishing a long-term presence in the Russian market, emphasizing local production and service [13][14]. - Companies like Great Wall Motors are adopting a localized assembly model, achieving over 65% localization to mitigate high import taxes and benefit from local subsidies [14][15]. - Experts suggest that to succeed in the Russian market, Chinese manufacturers must enhance local production, improve after-sales service, and reshape their brand image to counter negative perceptions [14][15].