中信证券:预计2025年四季度CPI同比或将维持在0.5%以下的区间低位徘徊
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2025-11-10 01:01

Core Insights - The October PPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -2.1%, with a month-on-month positive growth, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - Industries benefiting from anti-involution and non-ferrous sectors continue to be the main contributors to industrial product prices [1] - The PPI for anti-involution categories such as coal, cement, photovoltaic equipment and components, and lithium-ion batteries showed significant recovery [1] - Non-ferrous metals maintained a strong upward trend, becoming a key driver for the October PPI exceeding expectations [1] - The path for PPI year-on-year recovery may be slow as the "low base protection" disappears in the fourth quarter [1] CPI Analysis - The October CPI year-on-year reading rose to +0.2%, while the core CPI year-on-year reading increased for six consecutive months to 1.2%, the highest since March 2024 [1] - Significant contributions to CPI growth came from tourism and gold jewelry, while pork prices experienced an unexpected decline, reflecting a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) characteristic [1] - Based on the new changes in pork prices, the CPI forecast for Q4 2025 is expected to remain below 0.5% year-on-year in a neutral scenario [1]