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终端旺季加持,锂电价格上涨 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-11-10 01:05

Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price reached 75,500 CNY/ton, up 3% from last month, while lithium hydroxide price increased by 0.4% to 72,000 CNY/ton [1][2] - In September, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.37 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% and a month-on-month increase of 16% [2][4] - The lithium battery sector has seen a recovery since October 2025, with the lithium mining sector leading with a 7% increase, while the smart driving sector experienced a decline of 7.6% [2][3] Industry Changes - The storage industry in China experienced a surge in orders, with cumulative orders exceeding 250 GWh, marking a significant increase compared to the previous year [3] - The shipment volume of storage systems reached 167 GWh in the first half of the year, reflecting an 86% year-on-year growth [3] - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a sustained price increase cycle due to improving supply-demand dynamics and limited supply expansion [3] Market Performance - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles in China, Europe, and the US were 1.37 million, 330,000, and 170,000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 36%, and 37% [4] - The penetration rates for new energy vehicles were 54% in China, 32% in Europe, and 14% in the US [4] - The domestic storage installation in September was 4.0 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 69% but a month-on-month decrease of 68% [5] Price Trends - Lithium battery material prices are on the rise, with lithium hexafluorophosphate seeing a monthly increase of 66% [6] - Prices for major materials such as resource products, positive and negative electrodes, and electrolytes have generally increased due to demand, while graphite materials have decreased due to upstream price declines [6] Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to accelerate capital expenditure driven by a new round of lithium battery expansion and breakthroughs in solid-state technology [7] - Key recommendations include leading companies in niche segments and those involved in solid-state technology, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and Keda Technology [7]