智通财经网·2025-11-10 01:07Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity easing and supply-side constraints will continue to be the main investment themes in the energy and materials sectors, benefiting precious metals, industrial metals, and certain chemicals like chromium and refrigerants [1] Group 1: Market Overview - From early 2025 to the present, the non-ferrous metal index has significantly outperformed the broader market, primarily due to strong performances in precious and rare metals [2] - Basic chemicals and steel indices have performed similarly to the market, while coal and oil & petrochemical indices have underperformed [2] Group 2: Precious Metals and Copper - Despite a recent high-level pullback in gold prices, the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle is expected to support gold prices, with a projected range of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Silver is anticipated to have strong price elasticity due to an expanding supply-demand gap, with a projected price range of $50 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Copper remains a key investment direction in the metals sector, with a projected price range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton for 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and tightening supply [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Chemical Products - Supply-side constraints are expected to strengthen, with aluminum supply growth slowing and cobalt prices likely to rise due to severe supply shortages [4] - The projected price for aluminum in 2026 is set at 21,500 RMB per ton, while cobalt is expected to range between 400,000 to 450,000 RMB per ton [4] - Chromium and refrigerants are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply conditions influenced by environmental regulations [4] Group 4: Strategic Metals and US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions are enhancing the investment value of strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, with stable demand growth in defense and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - The projected price range for praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 2026 is expected to rise to 550,000 to 650,000 RMB per ton, while tungsten is projected to be between 300,000 to 350,000 RMB per ton [5] Group 5: High Demand for Lithium and Potash - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to stronger-than-expected demand from energy storage batteries, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 100,000 RMB per ton for 2026 [6] - Potash prices are also expected to increase, driven by delayed production expansions in major producing regions and strong demand growth in Southeast Asia [6] Group 6: Coal, Steel, Silicon, and Oil - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support price recoveries in coal, steel, and silicon materials, with projections for slight price increases in thermal coal, coking coal, and silicon materials in 2026 [7] - The steel industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with ongoing supply constraints and improved profit distribution trends [7] - Oil supply and demand are expected to shift from a loose to a balanced state, with Brent crude oil prices projected to rise to $65 to $70 per barrel [7]