Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-11-10 01:17Core Viewpoint - The electrolyte market has seen a significant price increase due to tight supply of key additives like lithium hexafluorophosphate, VC, and FEC, driven by sustained growth in downstream demand [2][3] Demand - The energy storage sector is expected to drive a new lithium battery cycle, with Q1 2026 anticipated to remain strong despite seasonal trends. Historical large-scale lithium cycles have been primarily demand-driven, with the upcoming period from 2025 to 2027 expected to be driven by global energy transition [2][3] - According to CESA's database, China's new overseas orders/cooperation in energy storage reached 214.7 GWh from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 131.75%. As these orders materialize, Q1 2026 is expected to be robust [2][3] Supply Elasticity - The supply elasticity in the electrolyte segment is the lowest, while structural demand and supply resonance exist in copper foil, separators, and high-end lithium iron phosphate. The negative electrode supply faces high energy consumption constraints [3] - New capacity for lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate is slow to build due to environmental regulations and construction timelines of approximately 1 to 1.5 years for hexafluorophosphate and about 1 year for lithium iron phosphate. The demand for fourth-generation lithium iron phosphate products is strong [3] - The graphite anode segment has high energy consumption characteristics, with an expansion period of about 1 year. Other segments like copper foil also face significant environmental pressures. The wet separator market is expected to gain market share due to energy storage demand, remaining tight [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the lithium battery upcycle driven by energy storage demand and suggests focusing on companies such as CATL, EVE Energy, Tiankang Materials, Dafa, Putailai, Shanta Technology, Fulin Precision, Wanrun New Energy, Sungrow Power, Haibo Sichuang, Huasheng Lithium Battery, Shida Shenghua, and Enjie [3]