铝逻辑有望逐步兑现，铝价迎来上行周期

Group 1: Aluminum Industry - Aluminum prices are expected to enter an upward cycle as the logic of aluminum shortage gradually materializes, with electrolytic aluminum profits continuing to expand [3] - Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.74% to 21,700 yuan/ton, with electrolytic aluminum gross profit at 5,741 yuan/ton, a 3.66% increase month-on-month [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is nearing its ceiling, while overseas projects are progressing slowly, leading to a potential shortage in electrolytic aluminum next year [3] Group 2: Copper Industry - Copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to accumulated domestic inventory, with London copper, Shanghai copper, and US copper showing respective changes of -1.57%, -1.23%, and -3.05% [2] - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 11.34% to 203,000 tons, while the operating rate of electrolytic copper rods rose by 1.54 percentage points to 61.97% [2] - The copper supply-demand balance may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage due to insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions [2] Group 3: Lithium Industry - Lithium demand is exceeding expectations, leading to a destocking cycle for lithium salts, with lithium prices showing signs of recovery from the bottom [4] - Carbonate lithium price decreased by 0.19% to 80,400 yuan/ton, while spodumene concentrate fell by 1.80% to $927/ton [4] - The lithium battery demand is expected to remain strong, potentially leading to a profit turning point for companies in the lithium sector [4] Group 4: Cobalt Industry - The tight supply of cobalt raw materials remains unchanged, with cobalt prices expected to continue rising [5] - The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.43% to $23.53 per pound, while domestic electric cobalt prices fell by 1.54% to 384,000 yuan/ton [5] - The Democratic Republic of Congo has lifted its cobalt export ban but implemented a quota system, which may delay the arrival of cobalt raw materials [5]