Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-11-10 02:57Core Insights - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key material for electrolytes, has surged to 119,800 yuan/ton as of November 7, marking a 114.31% increase from 55,900 yuan/ton on September 15 [1] - This price increase has led to a rapid rebound in the prices of electrolyte VC additives and finished products, with companies like Tianqi Materials, Dofluor, Huasheng Lithium, and others seeing their stock prices double this year [1] - A significant revaluation of the industry chain is underway due to a reversal in supply and demand dynamics [1] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price trajectory of lithium hexafluorophosphate has been dramatic, with prices soaring from several tens of thousands per ton to nearly 600,000 yuan/ton between 2020 and early 2022, followed by a decline of over 90% to a low of 54,000 yuan/ton in early 2024 [3][5] - The market began to reverse in the second half of this year, with supply constraints becoming evident [5][7] - As of October 10, lithium hexafluorophosphate inventory was only 1,500 tons, indicating a low inventory status, with some companies operating at zero inventory [7] Supply Constraints - The exit of many small manufacturers due to high costs has led to a more cautious supply from leading companies, resulting in a continuous contraction of effective supply [7] - Despite a production increase of 34.14% month-on-month in September, October's production is expected to drop to 20,100 tons, a decrease of 3.4% [7][8] - New production capacity will take at least 12-18 months to come online, further delaying supply relief [8] Demand Surge - The demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate is being driven by the booming electric vehicle (EV) market, with a penetration rate exceeding 35% in the first three quarters of 2025 and a 43% year-on-year increase in battery installations [9] - The energy storage market is also experiencing explosive growth, with global lithium battery storage installations exceeding 170 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, a 68% increase year-on-year [10] - The demand for electrolytes and lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to rise significantly due to increased production in both the EV and energy storage sectors [11] Financial Implications for Companies - The price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate is a result of strong demand and tight supply, leading to significant financial gains for leading companies while smaller firms continue to face cost pressures [15][19] - Major companies like Dofluor reported a revenue of approximately 6.729 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a net profit increase of 407.74% [19] - The stock prices of leading companies have surged, with Tianqi Materials and others experiencing significant stock price increases after years of stagnation [19] Market Structure and Future Outlook - The current price increase is indicative of a shift in the industry from scale competition to quality upgrades, driven by the explosive demand in the energy storage market and supply-side consolidation [24] - The new production capacity is unlikely to be released on a large scale before mid-2026, while demand growth in energy storage could reach 50% [24] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to stabilize between 80,000 to 120,000 yuan/ton, significantly above the industry cost line of 50,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton [24][25]