动力煤价上破800元，炼焦煤联动走强

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a significant price increase, particularly in thermal coal, with prices surpassing key thresholds and indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Thermal Coal Price Dynamics - As of November 7, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price reached 817 RMB/ton, marking a substantial increase, with other ports reporting prices as high as 778 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The price surge is attributed to a combination of supply constraints due to strict production checks post-National Day and increased demand driven by colder weather in northern regions [2][3]. - The current price has surpassed the previously indicated target of 750 RMB/ton for coal-electricity profit sharing and is now within the anticipated price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2][3]. Group 2: Coking Coal Market Trends - As of November 7, the price of coking coal at the Jingtang Port was reported at 1860 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in July [2]. - Coking coal futures have shown a significant rebound, increasing from 719 RMB in June to 1270 RMB, representing a cumulative increase of 76.6% [2]. - The price of coking coal is closely linked to thermal coal prices, with a notable price ratio of 2.4 times, suggesting that coking coal prices will follow the upward trend of thermal coal [2][3]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The upward movement in thermal coal prices is expected to follow a four-step process, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a profit-sharing equilibrium for coal and power companies [3]. - The ideal target price for coal is projected to be around 750 RMB by 2025, with the potential for further increases driven by market dynamics [3]. - Coking coal prices are influenced more by market supply and demand, with target prices derived from the ratio to thermal coal prices, indicating potential future price levels [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector presents dual investment logic: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends, with both thermal and coking coal prices positioned for upward movement due to improving supply-demand fundamentals [4][5]. - Key stocks to consider include those benefiting from cyclical logic such as Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal, and those with strong dividend potential like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [5].