油价或上调，就在今晚

Core Insights - The domestic retail price of refined oil is expected to increase due to a predicted rise in international crude oil prices, with an estimated increase of over 50 yuan/ton [1] - The current pricing cycle shows a positive change rate of 2.82%, leading to anticipated increases of 125 yuan/ton for gasoline and 120 yuan/ton for diesel, translating to a rise of 0.10 yuan/liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1] Price Adjustments - Since 2025, there have been 21 rounds of adjustments in domestic refined oil retail prices, resulting in six increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change, with prices down by 745 yuan/ton for gasoline and 715 yuan/ton for diesel compared to the end of last year [2][3] - The specific price adjustments for gasoline and diesel from January to October 2025 show significant fluctuations, with the highest increase of 340 yuan/ton for gasoline and the largest decrease of 480 yuan/ton [3] Market Trends - Recent data indicates a decline in wholesale prices for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel, with average prices at 7325 yuan/ton and 6456 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting a decrease of 2.51% and 0.38% [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the current weak international crude oil market and insufficient demand in the gasoline market are contributing to the price declines, while diesel prices are somewhat supported by seasonal demand [5] Future Outlook - The crude oil market is experiencing fluctuating sentiments, with Brent crude oil prices oscillating between 63 to 65 USD/barrel, indicating a need to monitor the support level at 63 USD/barrel closely [5] - Potential upward risks in the crude oil market are primarily linked to geopolitical issues, although fundamental pressures have not yet eased significantly [5]