Core Viewpoint - Sugar futures market shows a strong performance with the main contract rising by 0.46% to 5475.00 CNY/ton as of November 10 [1] News Summary - On November 6, Indian officials indicated that the sugar export quota for the new fiscal year may be increased to 2 million tons due to a decrease in sugar available for ethanol production, leading to a surplus of exportable sugar [2] - On November 7, the cost of imported sugar from Brazil under the quota was 3903 CNY/ton (with a 15% tariff), which is 1857 CNY/ton lower than the price in Guangxi; outside the quota, the cost was 4954 CNY/ton (with a 50% tariff), 806 CNY/ton lower than Guangxi prices [2] - On November 7, the price of first-grade white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5760 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5650 CNY/ton, down 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [2] Institutional Views - Zhongcai Futures suggests that short-term spot prices may stabilize and rise slightly due to the increase in futures prices, but overall trading activity remains average; medium to long-term factors such as increased global and domestic supply and adjustments in import policies may limit sugar price increases [3] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures notes that the global sugar market is entering a phase of inventory accumulation with increased sugar supply from Brazil; while the sugar production ratio has slightly decreased, it remains high; recent declines in Brazilian oil prices have led to lower ethanol prices, causing a downward shift in white sugar prices [3] - The domestic market is influenced by the increase in import profits, which may weigh on Zheng sugar prices; however, as the new crushing season approaches, cost support may help stabilize prices; market sentiment driven by rumors has already been reflected in the futures market, with expectations of a range-bound trading pattern for Zheng sugar in the short term [3]
即将进入新榨季压榨阶段 白糖维持区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-11-10 06:15