集邦咨询：新机带动需求回温 2025年第三季度全球智能手机面板出货量季增8.1%

Core Insights - The global smartphone panel shipment is projected to reach 586 million units in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, driven by the iPhone 17 series and new releases from major brands [1] - The total smartphone panel shipment for 2025 is expected to be 2.243 billion units, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, representing a recent peak [1] Group 1: Major Panel Manufacturers' Performance - BOE remains the global leader in panel shipments with over 145 million units in Q3, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3% [2] - CSOT's a-Si LCD shipments saw a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.5%, reaching 75.5 million units [2] - Tianma's overall shipments increased by 25.1% quarter-on-quarter, totaling 56.3 million units, driven by a-Si LCD demand [2] - SDC's shipments exceeded 100 million units, growing by 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, benefiting from the iPhone launch [2] - LGD's shipments increased by 16.7% to 21 million units, with expectations to supply over 80 million iPhone panels for the year [2] - Innolux's shipments remained at 23.2 million units despite a reduction in mobile application shipments [2] Group 2: AMOLED and LCD Market Trends - AMOLED panel shipments reached 246 million units in Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.9%, driven by increased adoption in mid-range models [2] - SDC continues to dominate the mid-to-high-end market with a 40% shipment share, while BOE maintains stable supply for iPhone and other major brands [2] - The Q3 LCD panel shipments increased by 6.9% to 340 million units, with BOE holding over 40% market share [3] - The demand for low-end a-Si LCD remains strong due to cost advantages and after-sales market needs, while LTPS LCD demand continues to decline [3] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The growth momentum for the smartphone panel market in 2025 will primarily come from the rising penetration of AMOLED and close collaboration between Chinese panel manufacturers and brands [5] - Despite limited overall smartphone demand growth, AMOLED is expected to expand steadily due to technological upgrades and cost reductions, while LCD will continue to support the entry-level market [5] - By 2026, AMOLED panel shipments are projected to exceed 45% of the market share, while LCD will maintain around 55%, with Korean suppliers dominating the high-end market and Chinese manufacturers accelerating penetration into the mid-to-high-end market [5]