欧洲商业调查预警：美欧贸易紧张局势对经济冲击将于明年集中爆发

Core Viewpoint - The negative impact of U.S. tariff policies and escalating U.S.-EU trade tensions on European businesses is expected to significantly intensify by 2026, with economic repercussions projected to be several times greater than in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - In 2025, the overall economic growth of the Eurozone will be only slightly affected, with GDP growth expected to narrow by approximately 0.03 percentage points due to proactive measures taken by businesses [1] - By 2026, the substantial impact of trade tensions is anticipated to manifest, potentially dragging down Eurozone GDP growth by 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points as temporary coping strategies lose effectiveness [1] Group 2: Sectoral Vulnerability - The manufacturing sector in the Eurozone, particularly in industrial powerhouses like Germany, Italy, and France, is expected to face significant downward risks due to high reliance on export and global value chain integration [1] Group 3: Future Risks - If the U.S. and EU fail to establish a mechanism to ease key trade disputes by the end of 2025, there may be a chain reaction leading to further contraction in corporate investment, decreased capacity utilization, and pressure on the labor market in 2026 [2] - The survey did not account for potential new tariffs or non-tariff barriers, indicating that the actual impact could be even more severe [2]