青鸟消防(002960)季报点评：竞争后期毛利率承压 期待后续逐步改善

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2025, primarily due to pressure in domestic business, while emerging sectors showed rapid growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 79 million yuan, down 45.71% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 3.359 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.60% year-on-year [2]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters was 35.19%, down 2.36 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 34.47%, down 4.39 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Business Segment Analysis - Domestic commercial and industrial fire protection business revenue for the first three quarters was 2.103 billion yuan, down 9.88% year-on-year, while industrial and industry fire protection revenue was 558 million yuan, up 4.58% year-on-year [2]. - Overseas fire protection business revenue reached 597 million yuan, an increase of 13.33% year-on-year [2]. - Emerging sectors such as energy storage fire protection saw cumulative shipments exceeding 100 million yuan from January to September, doubling year-on-year, and data center fire protection business shipments exceeded 120 million yuan, showing significant growth [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company faced increased expense ratios, with a total expense ratio of 24.55% for the first three quarters, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 expense ratio was 25.25%, an increase of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 277 million yuan for the first three quarters, an increase in outflow of 37 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 96.57%, up 15.86 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Industry Outlook - The industry is at a clearing stage, with expectations for improved competition dynamics as new national standards are implemented [4]. - The company has introduced its robot products at a fire safety exhibition and signed a cooperation agreement to enhance collaboration in the robotics field, indicating potential for incremental profit from this segment [4]. - The industrial and overseas sectors are expected to continue growing, while domestic business may see marginal improvements as the real estate market stabilizes and new standards are enforced [4].