中国央行继续增持，金价高位震荡，黄金基金ETF（518800）收涨1.66%

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in spot gold prices are influenced by easing US-China relations, mutual tariff reductions, and political developments in the US, leading to a marginal stabilization in gold prices despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Economic and Policy Environment - The US government shutdown may lead to a lack of critical economic data, creating uncertainty for Federal Reserve decision-making [1]. - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle, combined with increasing global macroeconomic policy uncertainties and a trend towards de-dollarization, is expected to support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Trump's fluctuating policy positions have heightened market uncertainty and increased risk aversion, providing additional support for gold prices [1]. - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act by Trump, which legalizes stablecoins, could have lasting implications for US dollar credibility and, consequently, gold prices [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The backdrop of monetary expansion and fiscal deficit monetization challenges the US dollar credit system, while global geopolitical tensions drive diversification in asset reserves, increasing demand for gold as a safe asset [2]. - The trend of de-dollarization may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing the upward momentum for precious metals [2].