ZACKSยท2025-11-10 07:56Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is preparing to release its third-quarter 2025 results, with expectations of a loss per share of 5 cents and revenues of $2.39 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 37.5% in earnings but only a modest revenue growth of 0.4% [2][3]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for 2025 revenues is $8.7 million, reflecting a decline of 19.7% year over year, while the loss per share is expected to be 9 cents, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 75% [4]. - Rigetti has had mixed performance in the past four quarters, surpassing the consensus estimate once, missing once, and meeting expectations twice, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 10.8% [4]. Earnings Analysis - Rigetti has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating no expected earnings surprise for the upcoming report [5]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a neutral outlook [6]. Market and Operational Factors - The third-quarter performance is likely to be influenced by uncertainties in U.S. public-sector funding, particularly due to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [7]. - Rigetti's rollout of the Cepheus-1-36Q quantum system is expected to provide early benefits, with strong technical gains and increased experimentation among customers [8]. Cash Position and Valuation - Rigetti has over $570 million in cash and no debt, positioning it well for continued system development and stable margin execution [9]. - Year-to-date, Rigetti's shares have gained 125.1%, outperforming the broader Internet Software industry, which advanced 10.2% [12]. Long-Term Strategy - Rigetti aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with approximately 99.5% fidelity by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving a 1,000-qubit system [13]. - The company is focusing on building an ecosystem through partnerships, such as the collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc., which includes significant financial commitments from both parties [17][18]. Commercial Developments - Recent orders for the Novera QPU systems indicate growing demand for quantum systems beyond government labs, with potential for broader enterprise adoption in the future [15][16]. - The integration of Novera with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform highlights Rigetti's efforts in hybrid quantum-classical workflows [18]. Investment Outlook - The upcoming third-quarter results are expected to reflect steady progress rather than a major financial turning point, supporting a hold view for investors [19]. - While Rigetti's balance sheet allows for continued investment, visibility into larger commercial demand remains limited, suggesting a cautious approach for prospective investors [21].