整体产能波动不大 预计纯碱短期难跌

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the chemical industry showed a mostly positive trend, with soda ash futures experiencing a slight increase in price, indicating a stable yet cautious market outlook for the sector [1] Supply - Last week, some production lines reduced output, with Jiangsu Debang and Ningxia Risheng undergoing maintenance, and a planned maintenance for Zhongyan Kunshan in December. Overall, soda ash production decreased by 10,800 tons week-on-week [1] Demand - Downstream demand for soda ash remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with moderate low-price stock replenishment. The production capacity for float glass and photovoltaic glass slightly declined, indicating limited fluctuations in overall essential consumption [1] Inventory - As of November 10, 2025, total inventory of soda ash in domestic manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous week, representing a decline of 0.47%. Light soda ash inventory was 797,700 tons, down by 1,690 tons, while heavy soda ash inventory was 908,500 tons, up by 890 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to see narrow upward movement in soda ash prices, with light soda ash prices slightly increasing. Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory levels are likely to continue at elevated levels. The production capacity for photovoltaic glass is stable, while four production lines for float glass have recently been shut down, leading to reduced demand for heavy soda ash. Attention is drawn to the potential continuation of price increases for light soda ash and the willingness of downstream sectors to replenish stocks, with expectations that soda ash prices are unlikely to drop in the short term [1]