短期到港压力依然存在 原木期货暂时观望

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The General Administration of Customs of China has decided to lift the suspension on the import of American logs, effective November 10, 2025, based on an assessment of U.S. corrective measures [1]. Market Conditions - As of the week ending November 3, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports reached 2.88 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a cumulative inventory build-up [1]. - On November 7, the spot market prices for logs remained stable, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine logs priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine logs at 770 yuan per cubic meter, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Construction Investment Futures noted that the log market has returned to being driven by fundamentals after experiencing high volatility. Current valuations are at historical low levels, presenting some left-side layout value. However, the supply-demand balance remains weak, and short-term port pressure persists. Investors are advised to choose strategies based on their risk tolerance, with aggressive investors encouraged to take small positions for potential valuation recovery, while conservative investors should wait for signs of stabilization in the spot market [2]. - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that the futures prices are operating weakly. High external prices and weak domestic spot prices are increasing pressure on traders, with no significant increase in imports expected in the short term. However, port outflow remains above 60,000 cubic meters, providing some support for prices. Overall, low inventory levels are expected to support prices, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for operations [3].