SZAP(SZ:000061) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-11-10 08:20Core Insights - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China has released an analysis of the supply and demand situation for agricultural products in November 2025, indicating adjustments in production forecasts for corn and cotton while maintaining estimates for edible vegetable oil and sugar [1] Corn - The forecast for China's corn production in the 2025/26 season has been raised to 30 million tons from the previous estimate of 29.616 million tons, with imports for the 2024/25 season reduced to 1.83 million tons [1][2] - Factors contributing to the positive outlook include ample market supply, improved profitability for deep processing enterprises, and strong demand for feed consumption due to high livestock inventory [1] Soybeans - The soybean production forecast for 2025/26 has been slightly adjusted down to 20.9 million tons from 21.09 million tons, with good weather conditions in Northeast China leading to higher yields, while adverse weather in other regions has caused slight declines [2] - The total import of soybeans for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 10.937 million tons, with exports at 80,000 tons [2] Cotton - The cotton production forecast for 2025/26 has been increased to 6.6 million tons from 6.36 million tons, with the yield per hectare raised from 2,211 kg to 2,251 kg, reflecting favorable growing conditions [3] - As of November 6, the cotton picking progress reached 95.3%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a sales rate of 18.3%, an increase of 12.2 percentage points [3] Edible Vegetable Oil - The production estimate for edible vegetable oil in 2024/25 is 31.32 million tons, an increase of 560,000 tons from the previous year, primarily due to higher production of soybean and peanut oil [5] - For 2025/26, the production estimate remains stable at 30.69 million tons, with slight reductions in peanut oil production due to lower yield expectations [6] Sugar - The total sugar production for the 2024/25 season is projected at 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons from the previous year, with an average price of 5,993 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 498 yuan or 7.7% year-on-year [6] - The forecast for the sugar supply and demand situation for 2025/26 remains unchanged, with ongoing monitoring of the impact of adverse weather conditions on sugar beet and cane production [6]