长城基金梁福睿：创新药板块有望迎来多重催化

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug sector has experienced a strong rally earlier this year but has recently entered a period of stagnation, raising questions about its potential recovery and future catalysts [1] Group 1: Reasons for Recent Stagnation - The primary reason for the stagnation in the innovative drug sector is the divergence between market expectations and industry realities. The sector's performance in the first half of the year was driven by business development (BD) logic, which, while reasonable, did not align with the slower pace of industry advancements [1] - The market's short-term focus on BD developments has created pressure for immediate results, compounded by a rise in interest in the TMT sector and a lack of significant BD transactions in the innovative drug industry during the third quarter [1] - Additionally, profit-taking by investors following the earlier rally, along with several stocks in the sector trading above their fundamental values, has intensified the downward pressure on the innovative drug sector [1] Group 2: Performance of the Pharmaceutical Sector - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector in the recent A-share third-quarter reports has been under pressure, with many stocks in sub-sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, medical services, and medical devices showing negative or significantly reduced profits due to weak demand in both outpatient and inpatient settings [2] - In contrast, the innovative drug sector has shown a sequential acceleration in revenue, with some generic drug companies reaching a turning point in performance, while CXO companies are seeing a recovery in orders, although profit margins remain uncertain [2] Group 3: Future Catalysts for the Innovative Drug Sector - Multiple catalysts for the innovative drug sector are anticipated, including industry conferences, overseas clinical advancements, BD transactions abroad, and national negotiations on innovative drugs [2] - Recent negotiations regarding the national medical insurance directory have met market expectations, and progress in commercial insurance suggests continued potential in the domestic innovative drug market [2] - The innovative drug pipeline that has achieved overseas licensing is expected to clarify its market potential through updates from multinational corporations' third-quarter reports and overseas clinical data [2] - Historically, the period leading up to Christmas is typically active for BD transactions, and the current market focus is shifting from short-term event-driven expectations to long-term fundamental realizations, suggesting a potential stabilization in the innovative drug sector's volatility [2]