东海研究 | 石油石化：原油供给宽松，叠加需求淡季，油价测试底部

Core Viewpoint - The report discusses the factors influencing oil prices, including geopolitical tensions, OPEC production decisions, and global economic conditions, predicting fluctuations in oil prices between $50 and $70 per barrel in Q4 2025, with a potential drop to $40 in 2026 [16][11][8]. Oil Price Influencing Factors - Geopolitical conflicts and OPEC+ production cuts have supported oil prices, while U.S. shale production and global demand fluctuations have created volatility [8][11]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with further increases planned for December [28][16]. - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory as of October 24, 2025, was 416 million barrels, down 9.54 million barrels year-on-year, and 5.91% lower than the five-year average [17][24]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - Global oil demand is projected to grow, with the EIA forecasting an increase of 300,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 240,000 barrels per day in 2026 [7][16]. - The IEA predicts a similar growth trajectory for global oil and liquid production, with increases of 270,000 and 130,000 barrels per day respectively [7][16]. - China's industrial crude oil processing volume increased by 6.8% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [24]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was approximately 4.11% as of October 31, 2025, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [16][34]. - The manufacturing PMI in China for October 2025 was reported at 49.0%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [47]. Inventory and Production Insights - As of October 31, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. was 546, a decrease of 39 rigs year-on-year, with production remaining stable at 13.64 million barrels per day [24][17]. - Global oil inventories are expected to increase, with a projected average growth of 2.6 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 [16]. Price Predictions and Market Outlook - The Brent crude oil price is expected to average $69 per barrel in 2025, with a decline to $52 per barrel in 2026 [16][7]. - The report highlights the potential for oil prices to test lower levels due to increasing supply and geopolitical uncertainties [16][11].