金价大幅拉升 多重支撑下中长期有望震荡上涨

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surged, with spot gold and Comex gold approaching $4100 per ounce, marking a new high for November [1] - The resilience of gold prices is attributed to factors such as easing trade tensions and a decrease in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, despite ongoing pressures from rising dollar index and Fed's hawkish stance [1][2] - The recent adjustment in gold value-added tax and slightly better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have also contributed to gold's strong performance [1] Group 2 - Long-term factors supporting gold price increases remain unchanged, including rising global de-globalization, increased uncertainty, and reliance on debt for growth in major economies, leading to a shift towards safer gold assets [2] - According to the China Gold Association, domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 79.015 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 164.03% [2] - Central banks globally continue to increase their gold reserves, with China reporting a gold reserve of 7409 million ounces (approximately 2304.457 tons) as of the end of October, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3 million ounces (approximately 0.93 tons) [2]