美股前瞻 | 纳指期货涨超1%，美国政府有望结束停摆

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.45%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.95%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.49% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 1.96%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 1.01%, France's CAC 40 up by 1.48%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 1.85% [2] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.17% to $59.85 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also rose by 0.17% to $63.74 per barrel [2] Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - The US Senate is expected to break the government shutdown, with a proposal to fund multiple departments until the end of the fiscal year and to restore pay for furloughed employees [4] - Historical precedents suggest that once the government reopens, there will be a backlog of economic data releases, potentially impacting market sentiment [4] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and UBS express that while short-term risks exist, strong corporate earnings are expected to support US stock market growth into 2026 [4] Employment Data Insights - The absence of the non-farm payroll report due to the government shutdown leaves uncertainty in employment data, but ADP reported a rebound in private sector employment with an increase of 42,000 jobs in October [5] - The three-month average growth in private sector employment remains at 29,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.32% [5] Japanese Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs reports a 30% surge in the Nikkei index, attracting US investors at the fastest rate since the "Abenomics" era, particularly in technology and AI sectors [6] - The influx of US capital reflects strong performance in the Japanese stock market, supported by a 2.5% appreciation of the yen and optimistic government policies [6] Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The volatility index for S&P 500 options has risen, indicating increased market pressure and cautious investor behavior following a month of turbulence [7] - The market has experienced significant fluctuations post-earnings reports, highlighting growing vulnerabilities amid a lack of US government economic data [7] Company Earnings Reports - Barrick Mining reported Q3 revenue of $4.15 billion, a 23.1% increase year-over-year, but slightly below expectations; the company raised its dividend by 25% and expanded its buyback program [8] - Beike (BEKE.US) reported a net profit of 747 million yuan, a 36.1% year-over-year decrease, with total transaction volume remaining stable [9] - Pfizer completed the acquisition of Metsera for approximately $10 billion, marking its entry into the weight-loss drug market [10] Technology Sector Trends - TSMC's October revenue growth slowed to 16.9%, the lowest in over a year and a half, indicating potential cooling demand in the AI sector [11] - Concerns over high valuations in the tech sector have led to increased selling pressure, with notable figures warning of an impending market correction [11] Leadership Changes - Diageo appointed Dave Lewis as the new CEO, aiming to revitalize its core spirits business amid challenging market conditions [12]