Three Macro Signals Just Flipped, Putting November and December on the Spot

Group 1 - Core viewpoint indicates that three macro signals have shifted, suggesting potential implications for both traditional and crypto markets [1] - Inflation remains steady at an annual rate of 2.5%, close to the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, indicating stabilization rather than resurgence [1][2] - Consumer data shows uneven pressure in sectors like grocery and insurance, highlighting a disconnect between aggregate inflation and real-world experiences [2] Group 2 - Liquidity appears frozen due to the US government shutdown, which has removed over $200 billion from the financial system [3] - The Treasury General Account has increased from approximately $800 billion to over $1 trillion, tightening funding across banks and money markets [3] - Analysts suggest that once the government shutdown is resolved, liquidity could surge, potentially benefiting fiscal and market conditions [4]