停摆若结束，数据洪流将至！美联储12月议息临考

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential end of the U.S. federal government shutdown and the subsequent release of delayed economic data, which could significantly impact market expectations and investor decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Data Release - The prediction markets indicate a strong likelihood that the government shutdown will end by November 13, with most traders on Polymarket expecting a resolution by then [1]. - If the government reopens by November 10, a wave of delayed economic data is expected to start releasing mid-November, including the September employment report, which was originally scheduled for October 3 [2]. - Deutsche Bank anticipates a significant rebound in non-farm payrolls, projecting an increase of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.3% [1]. Group 2: Delayed Economic Reports - A variety of economic reports have been delayed due to the shutdown, including trade balance, retail sales, durable goods orders, and various employment metrics [3]. - The release schedule for key economic indicators will be pushed back depending on when the government reopens, with the GDP and PCE data potentially being released in early December if the shutdown extends [2][3]. - If the shutdown persists until November 24, the release of critical data could be delayed until mid-December, affecting market analysis ahead of the Federal Reserve's next interest rate meeting [2][3].