Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price increase driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly from AI applications, which is expected to continue until at least the end of 2026 [2][3][4]. Part 1: Storage Super Cycle - The storage super cycle is still in its early stages, with DRAM prices increasing unexpectedly, particularly DDR5 PC memory prices rising by 25-30% quarter-on-quarter, and server DRAM prices increasing by 28-33% [3]. - NAND prices are also strong, with enterprise SSD contract prices up 25-30% and eMMC/UFS prices up 20-25%, while 3D NAND wafers have seen a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65-70% due to capacity constraints [3]. - Current NAND average selling prices are approximately $0.08-$0.09 per GB, with a potential increase of 40%-60% to reach the previous cycle peak of $0.13 [3]. Part 2: Supply Constraints - Module manufacturers and upstream chip suppliers are actively limiting supply to maintain price stability during this upcycle [4]. - Major cloud service providers like Microsoft and Amazon are attempting to secure long-term agreements for capacity expansion but have not yet reached consensus with suppliers, leading to a supply-demand gap expected to last until at least the end of 2026 [4]. Part 3: AI-Driven Growth - The demand for high-capacity eSSD from AI servers is a core growth driver, with storage capacity needs for AI servers being 5-8 times that of regular servers [5]. - The proliferation of edge AI devices is further driving the upgrade of consumer storage, transitioning the storage industry from a "consumer-led" to a "enterprise + AI-led" growth model [5]. Company-Specific Advantages - Jiangbo Long is expanding its enterprise business, with enterprise SSD revenue expected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 28% in 2026, significantly boosting overall gross margins from 18% in 2025 to 25% [6]. - The company has achieved a 12%-15% cost reduction by developing its own storage controllers, enhancing product competitiveness and supporting higher profit margins [7]. - Jiangbo Long has established long-term partnerships with key chip suppliers like Samsung and Micron, ensuring stable wafer supply and maintaining over 70% capacity utilization in a tightening supply environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts have been significantly raised, with projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 now at 240.59 billion, 382.00 billion, and 452.79 billion yuan respectively, and net profit forecasts adjusted to 14.82 billion, 43.08 billion, and 51.55 billion yuan [9]. - The embedded storage business is expected to benefit from AI edge device demand, with projected revenue of 183.25 billion yuan in 2026, a 77% year-on-year increase [10]. Valuation Logic - The target price is based on a residual income model, with an implied 11x price-to-book ratio for 2026, aligning with the global trend of valuation reassessment in the storage sector due to the AI super cycle [11]. Scenario Analysis - In the base case scenario, the target price is set at 325 yuan, assuming a continued supply-demand gap and stable AI-driven demand growth [12]. - In an optimistic scenario, the target price could reach 435 yuan, driven by a 90% year-on-year increase in AI server shipments and significant growth in enterprise SSD demand [14][15]. - In a pessimistic scenario, the target price could drop to 90 yuan due to weak demand and excess supply, with a projected decline in smartphone and PC shipments [17][18]. Investment Strategy - The report maintains an overweight investment rating for Jiangbo Long, highlighting its position as a key beneficiary of the storage super cycle, supported by ongoing supply constraints, enterprise business expansion, and AI-driven structural demand [19].
存储超级大周期刺激市场神经，大摩上调江波龙目标价：乐观假设情景下看到435元