日本经济政策转向！美资追涨日股，花旗警告风险→

Core Viewpoint - Japan's government is signaling a significant shift in fiscal policy, moving away from strict budget balance commitments to a more flexible multi-year spending plan, coinciding with a surge of capital inflow into the Japanese stock market from the U.S. [1][5][9] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Changes - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans to abandon the current annual budget balance target in favor of a new multi-year fiscal goal, allowing for greater spending flexibility [5][6] - The government aims to restore market confidence in Japan's finances while increasing investments to boost economic growth [6][7] - Takaichi's government plans to create a spending plan to address rising living costs and increase investments in growth sectors and defense [7][8] Group 2: Market Performance and Investment Trends - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 1.26%, reaching 50,911.76 points, reflecting renewed market confidence [2] - Goldman Sachs reported that U.S. capital inflows into the Japanese stock market are at the fastest pace since "Abenomics," with a 30% return in USD terms for Japanese stocks this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [4][8] - The participation of U.S. investors in the Japanese stock market has reached its highest level since October 2022, with a notable focus on technology and AI sectors [8][9] Group 3: Risks and Warnings - Citi Group issued a warning about overheating in Japanese tech stocks, noting that valuations have surpassed those of the U.S. "Big Seven" tech companies without corresponding profit support [9][10] - The PEG ratio for the MSCI Japan IT sector has exceeded the overall level of the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, indicating potential valuation concerns [9][10] - Despite a long-term optimistic outlook for Japanese stocks, there are short-term risks related to yen appreciation, market downturns, tech stock corrections, and declining NT ratios [10]