ZACKS·2025-11-10 16:31Core Insights - Novo Nordisk (NVO) is a leading player in the cardiometabolic market, primarily through its semaglutide-based drugs, Ozempic and Wegovy [1] Pricing Agreement and Market Impact - Novo Nordisk has reached an agreement with the U.S. Administration to reduce the prices of Ozempic and Wegovy starting in 2026, aimed at improving access and affordability across Medicare Part D, Medicaid, and direct-to-patient channels [2][9] - Current monthly costs for these drugs exceed $1,000, but they will be priced at $350 through the upcoming TrumpRx website, with potential future oral versions priced at $150 if approved [3] - Medicare and Medicaid will pay $245 for Ozempic and Wegovy, with Medicare patients facing a $50 monthly co-pay [3] Sales Growth and Financial Guidance - Novo Nordisk anticipates a low single-digit negative impact on global sales growth in 2026 due to the price reductions, with full financial guidance for 2026 to be provided alongside the 2025 results on February 4, 2026 [4][9] Competitive Landscape and Challenges - The price reductions introduce uncertainty regarding the long-term economics of GLP-1 development, particularly as Novo Nordisk faces slowing demand, increased competition from Eli Lilly (LLY), and challenges from compounded semaglutide alternatives [5][6] - Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Zepbound have generated $24.8 billion in sales in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 54% of its total revenues, highlighting the competitive pressure on Novo Nordisk [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Novo Nordisk shares have declined by 46.9%, underperforming the industry and the S&P 500 [11] - The company's shares are trading at a price/earnings ratio of 11.80, lower than the industry average of 15.57, and significantly below its five-year mean of 29.25 [14] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for 2025 have decreased from $3.85 to $3.67 per share, while 2026 estimates have declined from $3.96 to $3.91 [16]