Latest NRF Retail Monitor report shows consumer spending bounces back

Core Insights - Consumer spending showed a rebound in October, indicating a strong start for the retail sector in the fourth quarter, which is promising for the upcoming holiday season [1][6] Retail Performance - The CNBC NRF retail monitor reported a 0.6% increase in retail spending excluding auto and gas compared to a 0.7% decline in September, with a year-over-year rate decreasing to 5% from 5.4% [2] - Core retail measures, excluding restaurants, also saw a 0.6% increase from a 0.5% decline, with the year-over-year rate dropping to 4.9% from 5.7% [2] Economic Factors - NRF economists noted that consumer spending remains robust, supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, low unemployment rates, and positive wealth effects from strong stock market performance [3][8] - Despite high inflation and tariffs affecting consumer sentiment, nine out of twelve retail sectors experienced growth in October, particularly digital products (up 2%) and clothing and accessories (up 1.4%) [4] Sector Analysis - The only sectors showing negative performance included building and garden supplies (down 0.8%) and gas station sales, highlighting a mixed picture in retail [4][5] - There is a notable split in spending patterns between higher and lower-income consumers, with wealthier consumers potentially driving spending increases due to stock market gains [6][7] Future Outlook - The October performance is seen as a positive indicator for November and December, which are critical months for retail, with historical data suggesting that a good October can lead to strong holiday sales about 40% of the time [9][10]